Школьная лига 2023 · BO3
result vs predictionМ"МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3"loss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
М"МАОУ "СШ № 149"win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3"
No games played over 6 months.
МАОУ "СШ № 149"
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
272 picks · 439 bans
Dark Willow
235 picks · 114 bans
Muerta
235 picks · 327 bans
Phoenix
222 picks · 326 bans
Treant Protector
218 picks · 439 bans
Tusk
205 picks · 173 bans
Kunkka
204 picks · 541 bans
Centaur Warrunner
195 picks · 268 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3"
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3"
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3" 55%МАОУ "СШ № 149" 45%
The model gave 55% on МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3" — the game was taken by МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3".
Game 2prediction missed
МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3" 55%МАОУ "СШ № 149" 45%
The model gave 55% on МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3" — the game was taken by МАОУ "СШ № 149".
Game 3prediction missed
МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3" 55%МАОУ "СШ № 149" 45%
The model gave 55% on МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3" — the game was taken by МАОУ "СШ № 149".
Model check result
Model favoriteМАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3" · 55%
Series resultМАОУ "СШ № 149" 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3