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RES Regional Series: EU #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamwin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GRIN esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 22 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
LeBronDota · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
36%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 11 games
18%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Mr. Luck · 11 games
36%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 10 games
40%

GRIN esports

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 6 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 5 games
60%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moo · 4 games
50%
Luna
Luna
Double King · 4 games
75%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Double King · 4 games
25%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 4 games
75%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
449 picks · 722 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
420 picks · 675 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
415 picks · 333 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
407 picks · 355 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
404 picks · 524 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
401 picks · 884 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
379 picks · 170 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
377 picks · 180 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% GRIN esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:17
MarsBet Team 49%GRIN esports 51%
The model gave 51% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 39:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaRetsu
52% · 48 games60% · 290 games
BeastmasterMoo
Beastmaster
Death Prophet
Death ProphetW1sh-
34% · 67 games52% · 313 games
EnchantressLodine
Enchantress
Mars
MarsMr. Luck
42% · 90 games
Disruptor
DisruptorLeBronDota
44% · 146 games
Rubick
RubickBignum
48% · 252 games
Game 2prediction missed39:8
MarsBet Team 50%GRIN esports 50%
The model gave 50% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 25:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingRetsu
40% · 110 games52% · 221 game
Centaur WarrunnerMoo
Centaur Warrunner
Pangolier
PangolierW1sh-
46% · 141 game54% · 310 games
TerrorbladeLodine
Terrorblade
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMr. Luck
57% · 50 games
Rubick
RubickBignum
43% · 147 games
Disruptor
DisruptorLeBronDota
52% · 83 games
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 50%
Series resultMarsBet Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2