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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
JustBetterwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 24 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
LeBronDota · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
36%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 11 games
18%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
27%
Luna
Luna
Lukas · 10 games
50%

JustBetter

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SsaSpartan · 4 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 3 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Astral · 3 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
67%
Luna
Luna
Focus · 3 games
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Focus · 3 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Panda · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
418 picks · 679 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 635 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
392 picks · 360 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
392 picks · 320 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
375 picks · 449 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
374 picks · 829 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
357 picks · 358 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 585 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 39%
Hero pool strength53% MarsBet Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% MarsBet Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
MarsBet Team 56%JustBetter 44%
The model gave 56% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by JustBetter.
Game 2prediction missed
MarsBet Team 56%JustBetter 44%
The model gave 56% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by JustBetter.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsBet Team · 56%
Series resultJustBetter 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2