ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamloss 0:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:1
KXkomanda xwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MarsBet Team
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 9 games
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Mr. Luck · 6 games
Skywrath Mage
Jeezy · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 5 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Mr. Luck · 4 games
Svenoften banned
Otaker · 4 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
komanda x
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 271 bans
Pangolier
180 picks · 376 bans
Grimstroke
178 picks · 159 bans
Sven
170 picks · 247 bans
Dark Willow
166 picks · 70 bans
Earthshaker
166 picks · 164 bans
Earth Spirit
150 picks · 236 bans
Phoenix
148 picks · 189 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% MarsBet Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% komanda x
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct1:4
MarsBet Team 49%komanda x 51%
The model gave 51% on komanda x — the game was taken by komanda x in 8:46.
Model check result
Model favoritekomanda x · 51%
Series resultkomanda x 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1