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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamwin 2:0
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KZ TEAMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MarsBet Team

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 7 games
43%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 3 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Mr. Luck · 3 games
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Jeezy · 3 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
LeBronDota · 3 games
33%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Jeezy · 3 games
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 3 games
33%
Clinkz
Clinkz
Jeezy · 2 games
50%

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 18 games
44%
Mirana
Mirana
dEsire · 15 games
53%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
SsaSpartan · 12 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 11 games
45%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
70%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
W1sh- · 10 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
329 picks · 160 bans
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
247 picks · 322 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
209 picks · 420 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
205 picks · 311 bans
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
200 picks · 376 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
197 picks · 427 bans
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
196 picks · 113 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
188 picks · 283 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:24
MarsBet Team 38%KZ TEAM 62%
The model gave 62% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 38:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenOtaker
62% · 26 games55% · 20 games
JuggernautNande
Juggernaut
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMo13ei
44% · 35 games49% · 81 game
Earth SpiritW1sh-
Earth Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMr. Luck
44% · 17 games44% · 20 games
AxeSkyLark
Axe
Invoker
InvokerJeezy
47% · 31 game50% · 14 games
DazzleSsaSpartan
Dazzle
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritLeBronDota
56% · 26 games
Game 2prediction missed34:10
MarsBet Team 36%KZ TEAM 64%
The model gave 64% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 23:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMr. Luck
56% · 8 games52% · 20 games
Queen of PainW1sh-
Queen of Pain
Slark
SlarkOtaker
53% · 51 game55% · 26 games
GyrocopterNande
Gyrocopter
Dazzle
DazzleMo13ei
43% · 9 games46% · 42 games
DawnbreakerSkyLark
Dawnbreaker
Weaver
WeaverJeezy
little data39% · 10 games
IoSsaSpartan
Io
Warlock
WarlockLeBronDota
48% · 30 games
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 75%
Series resultMarsBet Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2