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RES Regional Series: EU #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 22 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
LeBronDota · 14 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Mr. Luck · 13 games
46%
Luna
Luna
Lukas · 12 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 12 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
36%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 11 games
18%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
36%

Nemiga Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
aik · 14 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 13 games
46%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
aik · 13 games
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
nicky`cool · 12 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MikSa` · 11 games
36%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
aik · 10 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 10 games
40%
Techies
Techies
aik · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
468 picks · 752 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
436 picks · 699 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
431 picks · 345 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
426 picks · 557 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
423 picks · 903 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
413 picks · 357 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
404 picks · 179 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
395 picks · 194 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:29
MarsBet Team 46%Nemiga Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 40:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaRetsu
53% · 177 games53% · 90 games
LifestealerLukas
Lifestealer
Zeus
ZeusW1sh-
47% · 61 game48% · 103 games
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Keeper of the Light
Slardar
SlardarMr. Luck
51% · 49 games52% · 147 games
BeastmasterMikSa`
Beastmaster
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLeBronDota
49% · 140 games47% · 213 games
Techiesaik
Techies
Disruptor
DisruptorBignum
53% · 283 games47% · 157 games
Tinyqueezy
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct23:29
MarsBet Team 46%Nemiga Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 41:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenRetsu
48% · 193 games60% · 181 game
MedusaLukas
Medusa
Windranger
WindrangerW1sh-
48% · 271 game54% · 351 game
Pangoliernicky`cool
Pangolier
Omniknight
OmniknightMr. Luck
57% · 29 games45% · 184 games
MarsMikSa`
Mars
Rubick
RubickBignum
44% · 526 games53% · 106 games
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
Disruptor
DisruptorLeBronDota
45% · 231 game53% · 428 games
Techiesaik
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 58%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2