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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SIBE Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MarsBet Team

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 8 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 6 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 5 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Mr. Luck · 4 games
75%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Mr. Luck · 4 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 3 games
33%
Jakiro
Jakiro
LeBronDota · 3 games
33%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Jeezy · 3 games
0%

SIBE Team

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
erase · 10 games
60%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
nesfeer · 8 games
38%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
emptiness · 8 games
88%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
erase · 8 games
75%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
y0nd · 8 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
klassnokruto · 7 games
14%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
nesfeer · 7 games
57%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
y0nd · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
297 picks · 150 bans
44%
Pangolier
Pangolier
210 picks · 404 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
205 picks · 273 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
191 picks · 381 bans
49%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
183 picks · 346 bans
52%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
183 picks · 108 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
176 picks · 264 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
175 picks · 248 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% SIBE Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:14
MarsBet Team 42%SIBE Team 58%
The model gave 58% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 39:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dazzle
DazzleMo13ei
44% · 25 games50% · 90 games
Svennesfeer
Sven
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinOtaker
52% · 200 games54% · 135 games
Puckerase
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMr. Luck
48% · 86 games54% · 187 games
Primal Beastklassnokruto
Primal Beast
Invoker
InvokerJeezy
44% · 121 game46% · 77 games
PhoenixRein
Phoenix
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLeBronDota
56% · 423 games49% · 366 games
Rubickemptiness
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct7:23
MarsBet Team 40%SIBE Team 60%
The model gave 60% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 34:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordOtaker
48% · 42 games46% · 56 games
Phantom Assassinnesfeer
Phantom Assassin
Viper
ViperMo13ei
43% · 30 games58% · 61 game
Lycanklassnokruto
Lycan
Tidehunter
TidehunterMr. Luck
55% · 90 games51% · 36 games
Windrangererase
Windranger
Phoenix
PhoenixJeezy
43% · 87 games51% · 157 games
Nature's ProphetRein
Nature's Prophet
Marci
MarciLeBronDota
49% · 91 game52% · 30 games
Grimstrokeemptiness
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction correct20:31
MarsBet Team 41%SIBE Team 59%
The model gave 59% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 37:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomMr. Luck
48% · 290 games51% · 151 game
Morphlingnesfeer
Morphling
Sven
SvenOtaker
50% · 99 games52% · 188 games
Primal Beasterase
Primal Beast
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMo13ei
43% · 122 games50% · 92 games
Tidehunterklassnokruto
Tidehunter
Invoker
InvokerJeezy
47% · 96 games56% · 141 game
Skywrath Mageemptiness
Skywrath Mage
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLeBronDota
45% · 109 games59% · 144 games
Treant ProtectorRein
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 65%
Series resultSIBE Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3