European Pro League Season 16 · BO1
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamloss 0:1series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Kleewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MarsBet Team
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Mr. Luck · 23 games
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 21 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 10 games
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 10 games
Vengeful Spirit
LeBronDota · 10 games
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 9 games
Lion
Bignum · 9 games
Team Klee
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
358 picks · 541 bans
Vengeful Spirit
308 picks · 232 bans
Phoenix
306 picks · 448 bans
Lion
301 picks · 271 bans
Magnus
273 picks · 425 bans
Nature's Prophet
269 picks · 764 bans
Grimstroke
267 picks · 458 bans
Faceless Void
263 picks · 645 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 68%
Hero pool strength51% Team Klee
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total66% Team Klee
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:28
MarsBet Team 34%Team Klee 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Klee — the game was taken by Team Klee in 35:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Klee · 66%
Series resultTeam Klee 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1