?
arrow_backBack to match
RES Regional Series: EU #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team NextUploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 24 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
LeBronDota · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
36%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 11 games
18%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
LeBronDota · 11 games
27%
Luna
Luna
Lukas · 10 games
50%

Team NextUp

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 9 games
33%
Batrider
Batridersignature
VaniLLl · 7 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Petushara · 5 games
40%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Miyaoo · 5 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
423 picks · 691 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
401 picks · 648 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
398 picks · 324 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
395 picks · 361 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
384 picks · 473 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
382 picks · 845 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
361 picks · 359 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
351 picks · 157 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Team NextUp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% MarsBet Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:11
MarsBet Team 57%Team NextUp 43%
The model gave 57% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 31:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinRetsu
47% · 117 games51% · 216 games
Sven7jesu
Sven
Windranger
WindrangerW1sh-
48% · 108 games57% · 170 games
Death ProphetMiyaoo
Death Prophet
Mars
MarsMr. Luck
39% · 84 games52% · 289 games
Storm SpiritMirage
Storm Spirit
Rubick
RubickBignum
48% · 253 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
52% · 113 games
Game 2prediction correct28:12
MarsBet Team 58%Team NextUp 42%
The model gave 58% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 30:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaRetsu
48% · 78 games45% · 153 games
Morphling7jesu
Morphling
Puck
PuckW1sh-
44% · 144 games60% · 118 games
Keeper of the LightMirage
Keeper of the Light
Omniknight
OmniknightMr. Luck
44% · 8 games49% · 157 games
Centaur WarrunnerMiyaoo
Centaur Warrunner
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterBignum
52% · 92 games
Disruptor
DisruptorLeBronDota
52% · 106 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsBet Team · 66%
Series resultMarsBet Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2