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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Mr. Luck · 20 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Mr. Luck · 15 games
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 14 games
43%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
LeBronDota · 13 games
69%
Luna
Luna
Lukas · 12 games
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
LeBronDota · 12 games
33%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
36%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 11 games
18%

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 24 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 18 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 17 games
47%
Techies
Techies
rue · 17 games
35%
Luna
Luna
Satanic · 15 games
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 13 games
46%
Tusk
Tusk
aik · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
489 picks · 770 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
467 picks · 939 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
456 picks · 201 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 612 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
443 picks · 339 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
439 picks · 692 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
438 picks · 200 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
430 picks · 731 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total69% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:27
MarsBet Team 41%Yellow Submarine 59%
The model gave 59% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 30:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaRetsu
47% · 176 games48% · 181 game
Faceless VoidSatanic
Faceless Void
Puck
PuckW1sh-
46% · 244 games52% · 207 games
Primal Beasterase
Primal Beast
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerStoneBank
48% · 285 games51% · 165 games
Magnusemptiness
Magnus
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBignum
55% · 147 games52% · 247 games
Batriderrue
Batrider
Elder Titan
Elder TitanLeBronDota
47% · 69 games53% · 121 game
Disruptorasdekor_r
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct11:37
MarsBet Team 40%Yellow Submarine 60%
The model gave 60% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 27:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaRetsu
43% · 92 games48% · 185 games
Templar AssassinSatanic
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritW1sh-
48% · 283 games49% · 150 games
Keeper of the Lighterase
Keeper of the Light
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerStoneBank
51% · 300 games61% · 202 games
Kunkkaemptiness
Kunkka
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBignum
47% · 150 games54% · 214 games
Enchantressasdekor_r
Enchantress
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritLeBronDota
43% · 235 games55% · 309 games
Batriderrue
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 69%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2