The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Matreshka Teamwin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Monteloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Matreshka Team
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
Pudgeoften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
Chuvash · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
Chenoften banned
dark · 1 game
Clockwerk
dark · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
dark · 1 game
Monte
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 12 games
Dark Willow
QBFY · 11 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 9 games
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
QBFY · 9 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Moonlight · 8 games
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 8 games
Gyrocopter
Crystallize · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
455 picks · 733 bans
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 630 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 406 bans
Batrider
405 picks · 758 bans
Rubick
389 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 1038 bans
Pangolier
357 picks · 746 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 29%
Hero pool strength56% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Matreshka Team 76%Monte 24%
The model gave 76% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team.
Game 2prediction correct
Matreshka Team 76%Monte 24%
The model gave 76% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 76%
Series resultMatreshka Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2