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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Matreshka Teamloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Sigma.YNTwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Matreshka Team

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
JANTER · 2 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
50%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
100%
Rubick
Rubick
Lagoona · 2 games
50%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
JANTER · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Lagoona · 2 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 2 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
egxrdemxn · 1 game
0%

Sigma.YNT

Tiny
Tiny
kur0patbI4 · 32 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
dSa · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 21 game
48%
Batrider
Batridersignature
toshiyb · 16 games
75%
Marci
Marcioften banned
kur0patbI4 · 15 games
47%
Dazzle
Dazzle
dSa · 14 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
toshiyb · 14 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
372 picks · 354 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
337 picks · 319 bans
59%
Marci
Marci
264 picks · 501 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
250 picks · 575 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
247 picks · 459 bans
52%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
234 picks · 602 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
222 picks · 127 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 353 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:38
Matreshka Team 51%Sigma.YNT 49%
The model gave 51% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 35:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkRetsu
45% · 42 games44% · 24 games
Drow Rangerv1olent-
Drow Ranger
Primal Beast
Primal Beastegxrdemxn
50% · 95 games52% · 79 games
Batriderforyou
Batrider
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageLagoona
46% · 74 games56% · 76 games
Enigmakur0patbI4
Enigma
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenJANTER
47% · 103 games54% · 62 games
Doomqueezy
Doom
52% · 73 games
DisruptorVANSKOR
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed31:53
Matreshka Team 50%Sigma.YNT 50%
The model gave 50% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 49:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingRetsu
48% · 108 games50% · 56 games
Bloodseekerv1olent-
Bloodseeker
Primal Beast
Primal Beastegxrdemxn
52% · 81 game46% · 78 games
Broodmotherkur0patbI4
Broodmother
Rubick
RubickLagoona
48% · 106 games51% · 100 games
Batriderforyou
Batrider
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenJANTER
45% · 112 games64% · 56 games
Skywrath Magequeezy
Skywrath Mage
50% · 117 games
DisruptorVANSKOR
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 51%
Series resultSigma.YNT 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2