The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Matreshka Teamwin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
trash_bloodloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Matreshka Team
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
Pudgeoften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
Chuvash · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
Chenoften banned
dark · 1 game
Clockwerk
dark · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
dark · 1 game
trash_blood
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
451 picks · 705 bans
Centaur Warrunner
435 picks · 616 bans
Gyrocopter
428 picks · 396 bans
Batrider
411 picks · 756 bans
Rubick
388 picks · 161 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 749 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1044 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% trash_blood
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Matreshka Team 75%trash_blood 25%
The model gave 75% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team.
Game 2prediction correct
Matreshka Team 75%trash_blood 25%
The model gave 75% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 75%
Series resultMatreshka Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2