Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Matreshka Teamloss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
UALEIKUMNIHAOwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Matreshka Team
Crystal Maiden
JANTER · 5 games
Primal Beastoften banned
egxrdemxn · 4 games
Rubick
Lagoona · 4 games
Tiny
Lagoona · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 3 games
Doomoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
Gyrocopter
Retsu · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
UALEIKUMNIHAO
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Palantimos · 2 games
Skywrath Mage
b1kA · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
Mary_y · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
hAze · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Shergarat · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
Shergarat · 1 game
Tiny
hAze · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
784 picks · 543 bans
Tiny
565 picks · 399 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 570 bans
Tusk
526 picks · 440 bans
Nature's Prophet
439 picks · 717 bans
Death Prophet
408 picks · 792 bans
Snapfire
403 picks · 292 bans
Ember Spirit
362 picks · 847 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 75%
Hero pool strength58% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:39
Matreshka Team 50%UALEIKUMNIHAO 50%
The model gave 50% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 54:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeRetsu
Nature's ProphetPalantimos
Beastmasteregxrdemxn
Death ProphethAze
RubickLagoona
Dark SeerShergarat
ClockwerkJANTER
Treant Protectorb1kA
57% · 200 games
DisruptorMary_y
Game 2prediction missed16:21
Matreshka Team 52%UALEIKUMNIHAO 48%
The model gave 52% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 35:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaRetsu
TerrorbladePalantimos
Beastmasteregxrdemxn
Death ProphetShergarat
RubickLagoona
BatriderhAze
DisruptorJANTER
Bounty Hunterb1kA
51% · 245 games
UndyingMary_y
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 53%
Series resultUALEIKUMNIHAO 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2