Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Matreshka Teamwin 1:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Wild Pandazloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Matreshka Team
Crystal Maiden
JANTER · 4 games
Primal Beastoften banned
egxrdemxn · 3 games
Rubick
Lagoona · 3 games
Doomoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Retsu · 2 games
Silencer
JANTER · 2 games
Tiny
Lagoona · 2 games
Wild Pandaz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
738 picks · 467 bans
Treant Protector
526 picks · 572 bans
Tusk
526 picks · 451 bans
Tiny
524 picks · 378 bans
Nature's Prophet
408 picks · 579 bans
Snapfire
381 picks · 253 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 608 bans
Ember Spirit
347 picks · 736 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Wild Pandaz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:18
Matreshka Team 61%Wild Pandaz 39%
The model gave 61% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 25:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 61%
Series resultMatreshka Team 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1