PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Matreshka Teamloss 0:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Matreshka Team
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
Pudgeoften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
dark · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
Chenoften banned
dark · 1 game
Clockwerk
dark · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
dark · 1 game
Yellow Submarine
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pJonn · 19 games
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 13 games
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 13 games
Dark Willow
rue · 11 games
Luna
Satanic · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 11 games
Tusk
aik · 11 games
Rubick
rue · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
394 picks · 643 bans
Lion
384 picks · 355 bans
Mars
378 picks · 611 bans
Techies
374 picks · 305 bans
Batrider
357 picks · 772 bans
Vengeful Spirit
349 picks · 351 bans
Tiny
342 picks · 397 bans
Hoodwink
333 picks · 202 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:37
Matreshka Team 25%Yellow Submarine 75%
The model gave 75% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 33:23.
Game 2prediction correct
Matreshka Team 25%Yellow Submarine 75%
The model gave 75% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 75%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2