The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Me Parbloss 1:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PRISM Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Me Parb
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
KNP · 1 game
Lion
boombell · 1 game
Viperoften banned
Beebie · 1 game
PRISM Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 715 bans
Centaur Warrunner
439 picks · 624 bans
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 398 bans
Batrider
410 picks · 756 bans
Rubick
389 picks · 161 bans
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 1045 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 749 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% PRISM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% PRISM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Me Parb 29%PRISM Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on PRISM Esports — the game was taken by PRISM Esports.
Game 2prediction missed
Me Parb 29%PRISM Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on PRISM Esports — the game was taken by Me Parb.
Game 3prediction correct
Me Parb 29%PRISM Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on PRISM Esports — the game was taken by PRISM Esports.
Model check result
Model favoritePRISM Esports · 71%
Series resultPRISM Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3