Чемпионат России Сбера 2026 по Dota 2 · BO3
result vs predictionMMEGAwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
USultimate strike wwloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MEGA
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bashka · 3 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 2 games
Snapfireoften banned
Difference · 2 games
Winter Wyvern
asdekor_r · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
asdekor_r · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
kolya_kaBAN68 · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 1 game
Rubick
queezy · 1 game
ultimate strike ww
Kezoften banned
Otaker · 1 game
Lone Druidoften banned
Otaker · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
496 picks · 355 bans
Rubick
380 picks · 228 bans
Clockwerk
344 picks · 640 bans
Tiny
337 picks · 343 bans
Windranger
315 picks · 228 bans
Bane
297 picks · 289 bans
Pangolier
292 picks · 395 bans
Ember Spirit
286 picks · 423 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% ultimate strike ww
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% MEGA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:28
MEGA 59%ultimate strike ww 41%
The model gave 59% on MEGA — the game was taken by MEGA in 54:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kezbashka
Drow RangerOtaker
Lycankolya_kaBAN68
Ember SpiritDifference
Enchantressasdekor_r
Rubickqueezy
Game 2prediction correct39:14
MEGA 59%ultimate strike ww 41%
The model gave 59% on MEGA — the game was taken by MEGA in 46:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinybashka
Nature's ProphetOtaker
Largokolya_kaBAN68
PangolierDifference
Rubickqueezy
Baneasdekor_r
Model check result
Model favoriteMEGA · 66%
Series resultMEGA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2