The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Mentality Monsterloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
GBGrind Backwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mentality Monster
Silencer
Juju · 5 games
Snapfireoften banned
GaN- · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
GaN- · 3 games
Clockwerkoften banned
OneJey · 2 games
Largooften banned
OneJey · 2 games
Luna
Cije · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
Muertaoften banned
OneJey · 2 games
Grind Back
Bane
ace12 · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Doomoften banned
seimei · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
Dreamocel · 1 game
Kezoften banned
Dreamocel · 1 game
Lich
ace12 · 1 game
Silencer
ace12 · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
621 picks · 402 bans
Rubick
525 picks · 289 bans
Phoenix
484 picks · 580 bans
Tiny
464 picks · 388 bans
Pangolier
426 picks · 598 bans
Puck
342 picks · 974 bans
Tusk
341 picks · 287 bans
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 504 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Grind Back
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Grind Back
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed49:19
Mentality Monster 44%Grind Back 56%
The model gave 56% on Grind Back — the game was taken by Mentality Monster in 34:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King23savage
Timbersawegxrdemxn
PuckKen
ClinkzCije
AxeForce
TinyGaN-
WindrangerQ
Keeper of the LightOneJey
SilencerOli
BaneJuju
Game 2prediction missed33:20
Mentality Monster 44%Grind Back 56%
The model gave 56% on Grind Back — the game was taken by Mentality Monster in 47:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny23savage
LunaCije
Dark SeerForce
Ioegxrdemxn
Void SpiritKen
PuckGaN-
SnapfireQ
Keeper of the LightOneJey
BaneOli
WarlockJuju
Model check result
Model favoriteGrind Back · 62%
Series resultGrind Back 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2