The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Midas Clubloss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
beastcoastwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Midas Club
Crystal Maidensignature
Wij · 12 games
Techies
Hyko · 10 games
Disruptorsignature
Wij · 6 games
Brewmasteroften banned
FCR · 5 games
Chenoften banned
Hyko · 4 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
4dr · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Costabile · 4 games
Marsoften banned
4dr · 4 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
448 picks · 689 bans
Crystal Maiden
436 picks · 201 bans
Centaur Warrunner
401 picks · 562 bans
Gyrocopter
396 picks · 421 bans
Batrider
357 picks · 623 bans
Rubick
357 picks · 169 bans
Dragon Knight
341 picks · 882 bans
Pangolier
335 picks · 657 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% Midas Club
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total67% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:42
Midas Club 33%beastcoast 67%
The model gave 67% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 41:23.
Game 2prediction correct6:36
Midas Club 33%beastcoast 67%
The model gave 67% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 26:47.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 67%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2