DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionMDMideng Dreamerwin 2:0
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mideng Dreamer
Bristlebackoften banned
BEYOND · 2 games
Muerta
Yumeyume · 2 games
Void Spirit
7e · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
lou · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
7e · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
Doomoften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
Jakirooften banned
Undyne_ · 1 game
Yakult Brothers
Jakirooften banned
天命 · 28 games
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 22 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 21 game
Puckoften banned
Moon · 20 games
Leshrac
Moon · 18 games
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 18 games
Muerta
BoBoKa · 17 games
Weaversignature
flyfly · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
642 picks · 695 bans
Tiny
519 picks · 451 bans
Tusk
493 picks · 413 bans
Warlock
433 picks · 290 bans
Phoenix
417 picks · 397 bans
Shadow Demon
397 picks · 1094 bans
Puck
391 picks · 836 bans
Mars
384 picks · 569 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 38%
Hero pool strength57% Mideng Dreamer
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:15
Mideng Dreamer 34%Yakult Brothers 66%
The model gave 66% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Mideng Dreamer in 46:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaYumeyume
Clinkzflyfly
Beastmaster7e
Sand KingMoon
DawnbreakerBEYOND
SlardarJT-
DazzleUndyne_
TechiesBoBoKa
53% · 89 games
Rubick天命
Game 2prediction missed34:15
Mideng Dreamer 33%Yakult Brothers 67%
The model gave 67% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Mideng Dreamer in 34:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierBEYOND
Phantom Assassinflyfly
Puck7e
BrewmasterJT-
SlarkYumeyume
Ember SpiritMoon
DisruptorUndyne_
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
61% · 73 games
Treant Protector天命
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 80%
Series resultMideng Dreamer 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2