Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Mind Gamesloss 1:2series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PuckChampwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mind Games
No games played over 6 months.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
383 picks · 277 bans
Mars
371 picks · 538 bans
Snapfire
312 picks · 191 bans
Weaver
303 picks · 710 bans
Queen of Pain
271 picks · 338 bans
Ember Spirit
234 picks · 310 bans
Disruptor
232 picks · 158 bans
Kunkka
229 picks · 393 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Mind Games
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:24
Mind Games 18%PuckChamp 82%
The model gave 82% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 1:00:13.
Game 2prediction correct23:13
Mind Games 18%PuckChamp 82%
The model gave 82% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 41:01.
Game 3prediction correct12:28
Mind Games 18%PuckChamp 82%
The model gave 82% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 34:18.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 82%
Series resultPuckChamp 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3