ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Mind Gamesloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TSMwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mind Games
No games played over 6 months.
TSM
Banesignature
DuBu · 18 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 12 games
Death Prophetsignature
DuBu · 9 games
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
MoonMeander · 8 games
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 8 games
Shadow Shaman
MoonMeander · 8 games
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
463 picks · 628 bans
Bane
450 picks · 284 bans
Tiny
431 picks · 486 bans
Sand King
395 picks · 524 bans
Death Prophet
358 picks · 782 bans
Ember Spirit
347 picks · 545 bans
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 529 bans
Pangolier
323 picks · 496 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 58%
Hero pool strength61% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Mind Games 23%TSM 77%
The model gave 77% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM.
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 77%
Series resultTSM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1