Khaz Modan Cup Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Mist Walkerloss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Atlantiswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mist Walker
Invokeroften banned
Xy · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Xy · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Xy · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Xy · 1 game
Tiny
Xy · 1 game
Venomanceroften banned
Xy · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
Xy · 1 game
Zeus
Xy · 1 game
Atlantis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
502 picks · 436 bans
Mars
473 picks · 692 bans
Bane
435 picks · 295 bans
Dragon Knight
434 picks · 536 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 601 bans
Storm Spirit
373 picks · 597 bans
Sand King
347 picks · 510 bans
Grimstroke
338 picks · 312 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% Atlantis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Atlantis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Mist Walker 45%Atlantis 55%
The model gave 55% on Atlantis — the game was taken by Mist Walker.
Game 2prediction correct
Mist Walker 45%Atlantis 55%
The model gave 55% on Atlantis — the game was taken by Atlantis.
Game 3prediction correct
Mist Walker 45%Atlantis 55%
The model gave 55% on Atlantis — the game was taken by Atlantis.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtlantis · 55%
Series resultAtlantis 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3