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European Pro League Season 37 · BO3
result vs prediction
MODUSloss 1:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Nemesiswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MODUS

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
elmo^^ · 6 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
mrls · 6 games
33%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
bottega · 5 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 5 games
20%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
elmo^^ · 4 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
mrls · 4 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
prblms · 4 games
25%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
elmo^^ · 4 games
50%

Team Nemesis

Tiny
Tiny
Mac · 19 games
58%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Jabz · 17 games
53%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Q · 17 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 16 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 15 games
53%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
23savage · 14 games
43%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
495 picks · 273 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
489 picks · 554 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
458 picks · 370 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
448 picks · 349 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
388 picks · 330 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
352 picks · 833 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
351 picks · 846 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
330 picks · 189 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
MODUS 33%Team Nemesis 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by MODUS.
Game 2prediction correct7:28
MODUS 41%Team Nemesis 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 35:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladebottega
47% · 266 games51% · 526 games
Tinyrubikon155
Tiny
Tidehunter
Tidehunterelmo^^
46% · 268 games55% · 461 game
Ember Spirit4nalog
Ember Spirit
Puck
PuckMirele
52% · 477 games52% · 78 games
Night StalkerJabz
Night Stalker
Ringmaster
Ringmasterkasane
48% · 333 games47% · 147 games
EnchantressYamSun
Enchantress
Windranger
Windrangerprblms
48% · 243 games55% · 375 games
HoodwinkLelis
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct27:27
MODUS 38%Team Nemesis 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 56:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinybottega
49% · 323 games53% · 141 game
Primal Beast4nalog
Primal Beast
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMirele
54% · 109 games53% · 94 games
Alchemistrubikon155
Alchemist
Bristleback
Bristlebackelmo^^
48% · 216 games53% · 281 game
SlardarJabz
Slardar
Ringmaster
Ringmasterkasane
50% · 242 games44% · 152 games
EnchantressYamSun
Enchantress
Rubick
Rubickprblms
48% · 239 games49% · 461 game
HoodwinkLelis
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 67%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3