Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspawin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HAVU Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
HAVU Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
370 picks · 346 bans
Tusk
331 picks · 304 bans
Marci
272 picks · 507 bans
Pangolier
251 picks · 568 bans
Undying
249 picks · 464 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 601 bans
Snapfire
220 picks · 124 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 346 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Monaspa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:15
Monaspa 70%HAVU Gaming 30%
The model gave 70% on Monaspa — the game was taken by HAVU Gaming in 31:20.
Game 2prediction missed18:54
Monaspa 70%HAVU Gaming 30%
The model gave 70% on Monaspa — the game was taken by HAVU Gaming in 29:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 70%
Series resultMonaspa 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2