Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspaloss 0:2series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 0:2
IVYwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
IVY
Tiny
Qupe · 24 games
Miranaoften banned
Qupe · 21 game
Tuskoften banned
Qupe · 19 games
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 13 games
Timbersawoften banned
Mo13ei · 13 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mo13ei · 12 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
jmn- · 12 games
Luna
pio65 · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
425 picks · 430 bans
Rubick
410 picks · 280 bans
Tiny
408 picks · 387 bans
Mirana
310 picks · 316 bans
Treant Protector
274 picks · 323 bans
Snapfire
250 picks · 132 bans
Ember Spirit
224 picks · 591 bans
Crystal Maiden
221 picks · 155 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% Monaspa
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total73% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:12
Monaspa 73%IVY 27%
The model gave 73% on Monaspa — the game was taken by IVY in 31:56.
Game 2prediction missed32:20
Monaspa 73%IVY 27%
The model gave 73% on Monaspa — the game was taken by IVY in 41:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 73%
Series resultIVY 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2