Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspawin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SS9loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
S9
Chenoften banned
lilskrip · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
paradise' · 3 games
Linaoften banned
keintseru · 3 games
Marcioften banned
illusion · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
lilskrip · 3 games
Enigmaoften banned
SuperNova · 2 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
SuperNova · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
keintseru · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
610 picks · 459 bans
Marci
461 picks · 668 bans
Dawnbreaker
377 picks · 531 bans
Puck
369 picks · 823 bans
Winter Wyvern
315 picks · 397 bans
Death Prophet
304 picks · 485 bans
Zeus
262 picks · 347 bans
Dazzle
260 picks · 163 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Monaspa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:32
Monaspa 60%S9 40%
The model gave 60% on Monaspa — the game was taken by S9 in 20:02.
Game 2prediction missed18:27
Monaspa 60%S9 40%
The model gave 60% on Monaspa — the game was taken by S9 in 27:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 60%
Series resultMonaspa 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2