European Pro League Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspaloss 1:2series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Water Rune Enjoyerswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Water Rune Enjoyers
Tiny
Nukkumatti · 22 games
Marcioften banned
Nukkumatti · 16 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Stojkov · 15 games
Razoroften banned
Palantimos · 14 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
BliNcc · 13 games
Linasignature
Stojkov · 12 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Mary_y · 11 games
Phoenix
Mary_y · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
348 picks · 317 bans
Tusk
287 picks · 273 bans
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
Undying
253 picks · 458 bans
Pangolier
241 picks · 529 bans
Primal Beast
223 picks · 571 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 329 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 122 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 31%
Hero pool strength51% Monaspa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Monaspa 81%Water Rune Enjoyers 19%
The model gave 81% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa.
Game 2prediction missed
Monaspa 81%Water Rune Enjoyers 19%
The model gave 81% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Water Rune Enjoyers.
Game 3prediction missed
Monaspa 81%Water Rune Enjoyers 19%
The model gave 81% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Water Rune Enjoyers.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 81%
Series resultWater Rune Enjoyers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3