Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspawin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zorka Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Zorka Gaming
Tiny
OneJey · 12 games
Linasignature
Miyaoo · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
Miyaoo · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
Arti_Shock · 7 games
Primal Beastsignature
klassnokruto · 7 games
Undyingsignature
klassnokruto · 6 games
Pudgeoften banned
dizzying · 5 games
Sven
dizzying · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
393 picks · 603 bans
Tiny
359 picks · 263 bans
Undying
325 picks · 549 bans
Enigma
248 picks · 771 bans
Pangolier
234 picks · 341 bans
Death Prophet
227 picks · 346 bans
Primal Beast
225 picks · 424 bans
Shadow Fiend
204 picks · 235 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% Zorka Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:13
Monaspa 61%Zorka Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Zorka Gaming in 25:07.
Game 2prediction missed27:21
Monaspa 61%Zorka Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Zorka Gaming in 24:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 61%
Series resultMonaspa 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2