ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MoneyMakerswin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Atlas Burdenloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MoneyMakers
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 14 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 9 games
Techiesoften banned
Bignum · 9 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 8 games
Rubick
Bignum · 8 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Bignum · 8 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Egor · 8 games
Atlas Burden
Dark Willow
OneJey · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Panto · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
nicky`cool · 1 game
Pugnaoften banned
OneJey · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
Smiling Knight · 1 game
Svenoften banned
Smiling Knight · 1 game
Tiny
nicky`cool · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
218 picks · 272 bans
Grimstroke
185 picks · 199 bans
Dark Willow
183 picks · 78 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 389 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 168 bans
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
Earth Spirit
154 picks · 249 bans
Phoenix
154 picks · 211 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% MoneyMakers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Atlas Burden
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:22
MoneyMakers 51%Atlas Burden 49%
The model gave 51% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 41:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverLukas
AlchemistSmiling Knight
Wraith KingPalantimos
Earth Spiritnicky`cool
InvokerWorick
Nature's ProphetOneJey
MuertaBignum
Ancient ApparitionPanto
Treant ProtectorCeMaTheSlayeR
Game 2prediction correct23:26
MoneyMakers 50%Atlas Burden 50%
The model gave 50% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 43:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaLukas
LifestealerSmiling Knight
BrewmasterPalantimos
Zeusnicky`cool
Void SpiritWorick
EnchantressPanto
Centaur WarrunnerCeMaTheSlayeR
Skywrath MageOneJey
PhoenixBignum
Model check result
Model favoriteAtlas Burden · 50%
Series resultMoneyMakers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2