Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MoneyMakers
Rubick
CeMaTheSlayeR · 15 games
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Bb3px · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lukas · 9 games
Disruptorsignature
Bignum · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 8 games
Leshracoften banned
Egor · 6 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Lukas · 6 games
cybercats
Tiny
Chira JUNIOR · 13 games
Rubick
jesv · 12 games
Clockwerk
forcemajor · 10 games
Lycanoften banned
DkFogas · 10 games
Treant Protectorsignature
forcemajor · 10 games
Disruptor
forcemajor · 8 games
Doomoften banned
zenica · 8 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Alberkaaa · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1006 picks · 683 bans
Tiny
658 picks · 483 bans
Nature's Prophet
608 picks · 955 bans
Tusk
556 picks · 435 bans
Snapfire
521 picks · 360 bans
Death Prophet
518 picks · 1175 bans
Disruptor
512 picks · 368 bans
Clockwerk
498 picks · 370 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% MoneyMakers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:32
MoneyMakers 49%cybercats 51%
The model gave 51% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 42:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightLukas
TerrorbladeAlberkaaa
BatriderEgor
Primal BeastDkFogas
SnapfireCeMaTheSlayeR
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
EnchantressBignum
Undyingforcemajor
48% · 472 games
Rubickjesv
Game 2prediction missed17:41
MoneyMakers 51%cybercats 49%
The model gave 51% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by cybercats in 43:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerLukas
Monkey KingAlberkaaa
ZeusEgor
Death ProphetDkFogas
Elder TitanCeMaTheSlayeR
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
DisruptorBignum
Clockwerkjesv
63% · 171 game
Miranaforcemajor
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 54%
Series resultcybercats 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2