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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
MoneyMakersloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MoneyMakers

Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 18 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 15 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Bignum · 14 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bb3px · 12 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lukas · 9 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
33%

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 15 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 13 games
38%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Malady · 9 games
33%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Malady · 8 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malik · 7 games
86%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 7 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
nicky`cool · 7 games
29%
Riki
Rikioften banned
swedenstrong · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
738 picks · 579 bans
46%
Disruptor
Disruptor
608 picks · 523 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
557 picks · 1290 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
549 picks · 1097 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
497 picks · 561 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
473 picks · 954 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1117 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
455 picks · 647 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% MoneyMakers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:34
MoneyMakers 40%Natus Vincere 60%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 26:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendLukas
48% · 210 games40% · 155 games
WindrangerShigetsu
Windranger
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEgor
49% · 515 games50% · 247 games
TimbersawMalik
Timbersaw
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBb3px
57% · 512 games51% · 463 games
Pangoliermellojul
Pangolier
Enchantress
EnchantressBignum
49% · 427 games47% · 718 games
Rubickxsvampire
Rubick
Techies
TechiesCeMaTheSlayeR
57% · 292 games50% · 373 games
ClockwerkMalady
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct18:28
MoneyMakers 40%Natus Vincere 60%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 25:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkLukas
54% · 206 games45% · 62 games
SvenShigetsu
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEgor
52% · 224 games45% · 206 games
MagnusMalik
Magnus
Tidehunter
TidehunterBb3px
52% · 126 games50% · 297 games
Pangoliermellojul
Pangolier
Techies
TechiesBignum
55% · 321 game50% · 141 game
PugnaMalady
Pugna
Silencer
SilencerCeMaTheSlayeR
52% · 330 games44% · 501 game
Rubickxsvampire
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 71%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2