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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
MoneyMakerswin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MoneyMakers

Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 17 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 15 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Bignum · 14 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Egor · 12 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lukas · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 8 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
CeMaTheSlayeR · 8 games
38%

Natus Vincere Junior

Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 11 games
55%
Mirana
Mirana
Riddys · 10 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 9 games
56%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Daze · 9 games
56%
Magnus
Magnussignature
pma · 8 games
75%
Tiny
Tiny
Ri4man · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
732 picks · 542 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
600 picks · 517 bans
53%
Doom
Doom
559 picks · 1096 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
556 picks · 1255 bans
57%
Techies
Techies
522 picks · 580 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
474 picks · 938 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
467 picks · 1082 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
455 picks · 652 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:13
MoneyMakers 46%Natus Vincere Junior 54%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 35:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenLukas
59% · 170 games49% · 185 games
Monkey Kinggotthejuice
Monkey King
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinEgor
50% · 102 games48% · 127 games
Broodmotherpma
Broodmother
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBb3px
53% · 247 games49% · 201 game
Void SpiritRi4man
Void Spirit
Lich
LichCeMaTheSlayeR
47% · 114 games45% · 177 games
BatriderDaze
Batrider
Pugna
PugnaBignum
47% · 122 games53% · 65 games
OracleRiddys
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct26:24
MoneyMakers 45%Natus Vincere Junior 55%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 55:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeLukas
45% · 118 games64% · 126 games
Medusagotthejuice
Medusa
Sniper
SniperEgor
49% · 30 games48% · 294 games
BatriderRi4man
Batrider
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBb3px
51% · 200 games58% · 120 games
Underlordpma
Underlord
Techies
TechiesBignum
54% · 203 games42% · 127 games
WindrangerDaze
Windranger
Undying
UndyingCeMaTheSlayeR
38% · 156 games53% · 40 games
Vengeful SpiritRiddys
Vengeful Spirit
Game 3prediction missed30:22
MoneyMakers 46%Natus Vincere Junior 54%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 43:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeLukas
48% · 174 games52% · 212 games
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEgor
50% · 164 games45% · 107 games
Dragon KnightRi4man
Dragon Knight
Axe
AxeBb3px
35% · 26 games55% · 96 games
Broodmotherpma
Broodmother
Batrider
BatriderBignum
52% · 222 games57% · 254 games
TechiesDaze
Techies
Silencer
SilencerCeMaTheSlayeR
49% · 205 games47% · 122 games
PugnaRiddys
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 57%
Series resultMoneyMakers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3