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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
MoneyMakersloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Sexywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MoneyMakers

Rubick
Rubick
CeMaTheSlayeR · 15 games
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bb3px · 10 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Bignum · 9 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lukas · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 8 games
38%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Egor · 7 games
71%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Egor · 6 games
50%

Team Sexy

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 10 games
70%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 9 games
67%
Lich
Lichsignature
Hduo · 8 games
75%
Visage
Visagesignature
Nefrit · 8 games
63%
Ursa
Ursasignature
7jesu · 7 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 5 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Moonlight · 5 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
9Class · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1001 picks · 687 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
653 picks · 480 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
602 picks · 957 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
553 picks · 432 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
529 picks · 360 bans
45%
Disruptor
Disruptor
520 picks · 375 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1185 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
500 picks · 374 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 64%
Hero pool strength57% Team Sexy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Team Sexy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:25
MoneyMakers 43%Team Sexy 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 35:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerLukas
53% · 117 games47% · 157 games
Templar Assassin7jesu
Templar Assassin
Zeus
ZeusEgor
50% · 143 games46% · 219 games
LeshracMoonlight
Leshrac
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBb3px
56% · 320 games46% · 88 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Disruptor
DisruptorBignum
60% · 388 games44% · 559 games
Rubick9Class
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCeMaTheSlayeR
50% · 376 games48% · 321 game
UndyingHduo
Undying
Game 2prediction correct18:31
MoneyMakers 40%Team Sexy 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 40:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeLukas
46% · 106 games55% · 84 games
Anti-Mage7jesu
Anti-Mage
Death Prophet
Death ProphetEgor
47% · 210 games50% · 210 games
ViperMoonlight
Viper
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBb3px
53% · 112 games59% · 281 game
EnigmaNefrit
Enigma
Enchantress
EnchantressBignum
53% · 157 games50% · 268 games
Primal Beast9Class
Primal Beast
Tiny
TinyCeMaTheSlayeR
47% · 353 games38% · 95 games
LichHduo
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Sexy · 66%
Series resultTeam Sexy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2