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EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Monkey Businessloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Monkey Business

Phoenix
Phoenix
n0tail · 4 games
100%
Tusk
Tusk
Pablo · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Topson · 3 games
67%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Pablo · 3 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
n0tail · 2 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Topson · 2 games
50%
Omniknight
Omniknight
Shad · 2 games
100%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Ceb · 1 game
100%

Yellow Submarine

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 27 games
59%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 26 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
mrls · 25 games
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 24 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 22 games
41%
Tusk
Tusk
prblms · 22 games
41%
Muerta
Muertasignature
bottega · 21 game
62%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Mirele · 21 game
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
533 picks · 867 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 381 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
473 picks · 633 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
456 picks · 590 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
397 picks · 820 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
353 picks · 576 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
345 picks · 480 bans
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
343 picks · 567 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 54%
Hero pool strength57% Monkey Business
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:45
Monkey Business 46%Yellow Submarine 54%
The model gave 54% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 40:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTopson
48% · 386 games58% · 248 games
PuckMirele
Puck
Weaver
WeaverShad
44% · 78 games53% · 154 games
Muertabottega
Muerta
Viper
Vipern0tail
50% · 48 games49% · 39 games
BrewmasterInfernal
Brewmaster
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPablo
50% · 163 games48% · 193 games
Hoodwinkprblms
Hoodwink
Alchemist
AlchemistCeb
49% · 58 games49% · 99 games
BaneHtrd
Bane
Game 2prediction correct9:31
Monkey Business 49%Yellow Submarine 51%
The model gave 51% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 37:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaShad
44% · 228 games54% · 162 games
Shadow Fiendbottega
Shadow Fiend
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritTopson
53% · 391 game51% · 447 games
Storm SpiritMirele
Storm Spirit
Phoenix
Phoenixn0tail
51% · 159 games54% · 345 games
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Centaur Warrunner
Tiny
TinyPablo
46% · 389 games51% · 422 games
RingmasterHtrd
Ringmaster
Windranger
WindrangerCeb
48% · 259 games45% · 50 games
Earth Spiritprblms
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 55%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2