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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Monteloss 0:2
series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Monte

Lina
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 8 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 7 games
29%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 7 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 6 games
67%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
EcNart · 6 games
33%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
41%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 15 games
47%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 14 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 12 games
50%
Techies
Techies
OneJey · 12 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 11 games
36%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 10 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Bb3px · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
473 picks · 714 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
457 picks · 200 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
450 picks · 888 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 598 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
424 picks · 187 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
415 picks · 667 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
407 picks · 706 bans
52%
Techies
Techies
407 picks · 317 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:35
Monte 27%HULIGANI 73%
The model gave 73% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 47:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightCrystallize
63% · 39 games45% · 90 games
SvenRAMZES666
Sven
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMoonlight
50% · 62 games56% · 74 games
Leshracre1bl
Leshrac
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionEcNart
55% · 54 games51% · 100 games
MagnusBb3px
Magnus
Slardar
SlardarInfernal
48% · 42 games43% · 80 games
Dark WillowOneJey
Dark Willow
Tiny
TinyQBFY
51% · 178 games41% · 31 game
BanePanto
Bane
Game 2prediction correct32:31
Monte 28%HULIGANI 72%
The model gave 72% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 48:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracMoonlight
57% · 123 games44% · 50 games
Anti-MageRAMZES666
Anti-Mage
Brewmaster
BrewmasterInfernal
49% · 110 games48% · 101 game
Spirit BreakerBb3px
Spirit Breaker
Sven
SvenCrystallize
49% · 134 games51% · 156 games
Keeper of the Lightre1bl
Keeper of the Light
Batrider
BatriderQBFY
52% · 292 games55% · 106 games
EnigmaPanto
Enigma
Elder Titan
Elder TitanEcNart
54% · 81 game41% · 327 games
RubickOneJey
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 88%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2