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RES Regional Series: EU #2 · BO2
result vs prediction
Monteloss 1:1
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Monte

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 12 games
25%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 9 games
22%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 9 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Moonlight · 8 games
13%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Crystallize · 8 games
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 8 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
QBFY · 8 games
25%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 36 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 35 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 27 games
56%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 25 games
72%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 23 games
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
38%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
70%
Pugna
Pugna
Riddys · 20 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
484 picks · 214 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 629 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
416 picks · 735 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
397 picks · 159 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
396 picks · 555 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
386 picks · 334 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 745 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 551 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 66%
Hero pool strength61% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total72% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:22
Monte 28%Natus Vincere Junior 72%
The model gave 72% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Monte in 1:05:37.
Game 2prediction correct37:21
Monte 28%Natus Vincere Junior 72%
The model gave 72% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 36:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 72%
Accuracy by game1 of 2