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CCT Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Monteloss 0:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Monte

Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
QBFY · 11 games
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 10 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 10 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 9 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
EcNart · 9 games
22%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
QBFY · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 8 games
25%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 8 games
50%

Nemiga Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 23 games
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 21 game
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 20 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 20 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
aik · 18 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
nicky`cool · 15 games
60%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
queezy · 13 games
62%
Luna
Lunasignature
Lukas · 12 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
418 picks · 616 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
371 picks · 388 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
366 picks · 140 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 468 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
321 picks · 342 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
318 picks · 579 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
315 picks · 158 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 648 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 55%
Hero pool strength60% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:26
Monte 27%Nemiga Gaming 73%
The model gave 73% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 46:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverCrystallize
48% · 154 games58% · 91 game
UrsaLukas
Ursa
Underlord
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
52% · 74 games47% · 293 games
Tinynicky`cool
Tiny
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMoonlight
48% · 248 games40% · 27 games
VisageMikSa`
Visage
Phoenix
PhoenixEcNart
49% · 199 games49% · 250 games
Batriderjesv
Batrider
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonQBFY
51% · 237 games52% · 251 game
Crystal Maidenaik
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct13:36
Monte 25%Nemiga Gaming 75%
The model gave 75% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 28:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaCrystallize
50% · 73 games50% · 64 games
MedusaLukas
Medusa
Lina
LinaMoonlight
40% · 107 games55% · 214 games
Timbersawnicky`cool
Timbersaw
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightVladikTheHtiviy
49% · 249 games50% · 208 games
Primal BeastMikSa`
Primal Beast
Tiny
TinyQBFY
49% · 353 games50% · 244 games
Batriderjesv
Batrider
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeEcNart
52% · 173 games54% · 225 games
Crystal Maidenaik
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 87%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2