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RES Regional Series: EU #3 · BO2
result vs prediction
Monteloss 1:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Nightshadeloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Monte

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 12 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 11 games
36%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
EcNart · 11 games
27%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
QBFY · 11 games
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
QBFY · 11 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 10 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 9 games
22%

Nightshade

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 1 game
0%
Lion
Lion
Kyzko · 1 game
0%
Lone Druid
Lone Druid
Otaker · 1 game
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Kyzko · 1 game
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ri4man · 1 game
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ri4man · 1 game
0%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
387 picks · 688 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 377 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
320 picks · 461 bans
55%
Weaver
Weaver
317 picks · 608 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
315 picks · 239 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
311 picks · 202 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
309 picks · 350 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
293 picks · 543 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Monte
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Nightshade
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:15
Monte 41%Nightshade 59%
The model gave 59% on Nightshade — the game was taken by Monte in 41:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenCrystallize
54% · 170 games44% · 163 games
Ember SpiritRi4man
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterVladikTheHtiviy
54% · 139 games50% · 88 games
UnderlordChodΣX
Underlord
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMoonlight
44% · 157 games52% · 380 games
RubickKyzko
Rubick
Weaver
WeaverEcNart
50% · 144 games55% · 123 games
Elder Titanjmn-
Elder Titan
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
47% · 144 games
Game 2prediction correct36:38
Monte 43%Nightshade 57%
The model gave 57% on Nightshade — the game was taken by Nightshade in 39:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverCrystallize
36% · 47 games53% · 11 games
Sand KingChodΣX
Sand King
Zeus
ZeusMoonlight
52% · 18 games49% · 75 games
Shadow FiendRi4man
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
BeastmasterVladikTheHtiviy
52% · 50 games58% · 73 games
Elder TitanKyzko
Elder Titan
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerEcNart
53% · 37 games46% · 47 games
Jakirojmn-
Jakiro
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
51% · 54 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNightshade · 63%
Accuracy by game1 of 2