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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Monteloss 0:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:1
One Movewin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Monte

Rubick
Rubick
QBFY · 14 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
QBFY · 13 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 12 games
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
36%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
EcNart · 11 games
27%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
QBFY · 11 games
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 11 games
55%

One Move

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 14 games
36%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 12 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SSS · 12 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 11 games
36%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 10 games
10%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 10 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
418 picks · 310 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
417 picks · 438 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
393 picks · 824 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
392 picks · 884 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
362 picks · 715 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 514 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
350 picks · 486 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 536 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Monte
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total60% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:28
Monte 40%One Move 60%
The model gave 60% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 40:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 60%
Series resultOne Move 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1