RES Regional Series: EU #2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Montewin 1:0series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Rest Farmersloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monte
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 12 games
Dark Willow
QBFY · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 9 games
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 9 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Moonlight · 8 games
Gyrocopter
Crystallize · 8 games
Hoodwink
QBFY · 8 games
Rubick
QBFY · 8 games
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 215 bans
Tiny
440 picks · 637 bans
Batrider
421 picks · 738 bans
Centaur Warrunner
402 picks · 570 bans
Rubick
396 picks · 166 bans
Gyrocopter
394 picks · 350 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 773 bans
Mars
341 picks · 563 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Rest Farmers
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total80% Rest Farmers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed2:1
Monte 20%Rest Farmers 80%
The model gave 80% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Monte in 12:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteRest Farmers · 80%
Series resultMonte 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1