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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Moodeng Warriorswin 2:0
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Moodeng Warriors

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Oli · 1 game
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
423 · 1 game
100%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Jabz · 1 game
100%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
JT- · 1 game
100%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Abed · 1 game
100%

BOOM Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 21 game
71%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Mac · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 17 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 16 games
81%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 15 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Tims · 14 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 14 games
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Mac · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
488 picks · 627 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
468 picks · 402 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
460 picks · 581 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
445 picks · 555 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
431 picks · 501 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 789 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
412 picks · 917 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
396 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:8
Moodeng Warriors 44%BOOM Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Moodeng Warriors in 34:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Siren423
54% · 123 games46% · 343 games
MorphlingJaCkky
Morphling
Bristleback
BristlebackJT-
51% · 212 games46% · 287 games
DoomFbz
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierAbed
46% · 420 games52% · 195 games
MagnusMac
Magnus
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerJabz
57% · 37 games67% · 27 games
RikiTims
Riki
Batrider
BatriderOli
49% · 418 games46% · 358 games
Shadow DemonJaunuel
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed40:6
Moodeng Warriors 44%BOOM Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Moodeng Warriors in 38:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter423
54% · 219 games45% · 397 games
BeastmasterFbz
Beastmaster
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerJT-
47% · 135 games54% · 210 games
LifestealerJaCkky
Lifestealer
Tiny
TinyAbed
50% · 280 games56% · 128 games
EarthshakerMac
Earthshaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJabz
51% · 256 games39% · 24 games
RikiTims
Riki
Elder Titan
Elder TitanOli
50% · 84 games48% · 215 games
LichJaunuel
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 60%
Series resultMoodeng Warriors 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2