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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Moodeng Warriorsloss 0:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Moodeng Warriors

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Jabz · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Oli · 4 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 4 games
75%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Jabz · 4 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
423 · 3 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
423 · 3 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Oli · 3 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
423 · 2 games
0%

Shopify Rebellion

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Hellscream · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 17 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
mangekyou · 15 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 15 games
60%
Visage
Visageoften banned
mangekyou · 13 games
38%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
527 picks · 773 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
497 picks · 591 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
496 picks · 537 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
482 picks · 600 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
466 picks · 392 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
442 picks · 986 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
435 picks · 793 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
390 picks · 896 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:27
Moodeng Warriors 39%Shopify Rebellion 61%
The model gave 61% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 36:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealer423
53% · 120 games55% · 28 games
SpectreTimado
Spectre
Doom
DoomJT-
47% · 249 games46% · 38 games
AbaddonPakazs
Abaddon
Tiny
TinyAbed
52% · 398 games47% · 467 games
PangolierYopaj
Pangolier
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeJabz
59% · 116 games42% · 76 games
VenomancerSkem
Venomancer
Elder Titan
Elder TitanOli
59% · 129 games47% · 403 games
ClockwerkHellscream
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct22:35
Moodeng Warriors 37%Shopify Rebellion 63%
The model gave 63% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 56:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter423
51% · 455 games52% · 336 games
Dragon KnightTimado
Dragon Knight
Lina
LinaAbed
45% · 226 games53% · 262 games
DoomPakazs
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierJT-
48% · 550 games54% · 99 games
EarthshakerYopaj
Earthshaker
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterJabz
51% · 81 game47% · 339 games
PhoenixSkem
Phoenix
Warlock
WarlockOli
47% · 91 game53% · 367 games
ClockwerkHellscream
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 74%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2