BIX Invitationals Summer · BO2
result vs predictionMCMoon Chasersloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TMTeam Mysterywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Moon Chasers
No games played over 6 months.
Team Mystery
Tusk
Ponyo · 4 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 3 games
Juggernautoften banned
Ghost · 3 games
Phoenix
Ponyo · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
mks- · 2 games
Lion
Eren · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
471 picks · 188 bans
Snapfire
373 picks · 207 bans
Mars
358 picks · 566 bans
Puck
342 picks · 838 bans
Ancient Apparition
317 picks · 461 bans
Tiny
313 picks · 243 bans
Nyx Assassin
307 picks · 597 bans
Grimstroke
300 picks · 280 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 25%
Hero pool strength59% Moon Chasers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Mystery
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:42
Moon Chasers 46%Team Mystery 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Mystery — the game was taken by Team Mystery in 27:09.
Game 2prediction correct32:39
Moon Chasers 46%Team Mystery 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Mystery — the game was taken by Team Mystery in 26:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Mystery · 54%
Series resultTeam Mystery 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2