Winline Insight · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamwin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ChillOutloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
ChillOut
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
483 picks · 451 bans
Mars
481 picks · 672 bans
Bane
458 picks · 279 bans
Dragon Knight
422 picks · 499 bans
Sand King
415 picks · 569 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 654 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 579 bans
Grimstroke
353 picks · 303 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% MooN team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:12
MooN team 71%ChillOut 29%
The model gave 71% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 24:18.
Game 2prediction correct33:19
MooN team 71%ChillOut 29%
The model gave 71% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 32:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 71%
Series resultMooN team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2