Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamwin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HFloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
HF
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 14 games
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 13 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 12 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
Bane
Malady · 8 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 8 games
Iosignature
Kaori · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
501 picks · 445 bans
Mars
488 picks · 692 bans
Bane
461 picks · 286 bans
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 522 bans
Sand King
410 picks · 561 bans
Storm Spirit
403 picks · 645 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 609 bans
Grimstroke
360 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength59% HF
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total50% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:37
MooN team 50%HF 50%
The model gave 50% on MooN team — the game was taken by HF in 40:07.
Game 2prediction correct9:24
MooN team 50%HF 50%
The model gave 50% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 28:24.
Game 3prediction correct43:7
MooN team 50%HF 50%
The model gave 50% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 35:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 50%
Series resultMooN team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3