Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamwin 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HFloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
HF
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 16 games
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 14 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 13 games
Pucksignature
hAze · 13 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 10 games
Iosignature
Kaori · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
716 picks · 526 bans
Puck
512 picks · 1002 bans
Dawnbreaker
436 picks · 552 bans
Marci
409 picks · 743 bans
Snapfire
368 picks · 193 bans
Winter Wyvern
345 picks · 357 bans
Zeus
309 picks · 346 bans
Razor
300 picks · 611 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% HF
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total59% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:29
MooN team 59%HF 41%
The model gave 59% on MooN team — the game was taken by HF in 33:18.
Game 2prediction correct41:50
MooN team 59%HF 41%
The model gave 59% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 51:06.
Game 3prediction correct22:35
MooN team 59%HF 41%
The model gave 59% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 33:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 59%
Series resultMooN team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3