Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Monaspawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
593 picks · 450 bans
Marci
459 picks · 665 bans
Dawnbreaker
368 picks · 501 bans
Puck
355 picks · 801 bans
Winter Wyvern
308 picks · 389 bans
Death Prophet
303 picks · 484 bans
Dazzle
256 picks · 163 bans
Zeus
255 picks · 344 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% MooN team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct2:12
MooN team 47%Monaspa 53%
The model gave 53% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 10:31.
Game 2prediction correct7:29
MooN team 47%Monaspa 53%
The model gave 53% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 20:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 53%
Series resultMonaspa 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2