Winline Insight · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamwin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
sQreen's Squadloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
sQreen's Squad
Clockwerk
sQreen · 2 games
Pugnaoften banned
sQreen · 2 games
Tusk
sQreen · 2 games
Axe
Wuiter · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
Wuiter · 1 game
Dawnbreaker
Actor · 1 game
Doomoften banned
sQreen · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
507 picks · 449 bans
Mars
494 picks · 693 bans
Bane
465 picks · 285 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 531 bans
Sand King
407 picks · 555 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 643 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 620 bans
Grimstroke
361 picks · 317 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% MooN team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct52:14
MooN team 64%sQreen's Squad 36%
The model gave 64% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 34:29.
Game 2prediction correct33:15
MooN team 64%sQreen's Squad 36%
The model gave 64% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 27:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 64%
Series resultMooN team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2